Why Doing Pot (Odds) is Good
I have been reading blogs, giving advice in some and answering questions in others. I realized that most new people are grappling with one aspect of poker that I had a hard time digesting at first too. Pot Odds
For the advance players, usually pot odds is just a basis of whether they should call a drawing hand but in reality pot odds allow you to control the probabilities and put them in your favor.
So here is my take on the topic. Take note there may be errors and I am not going through the nitty gritty exact calculations. I am just going to tell you how I calculate pot odds and how I use it.
Pot Odds is basically the comparison of how much you need to bet to win a pot versus the odds of you making the best hand. So for example there is 1000 in the pot and you have a flush draw. Only one person in the hand and they bet 500 (pot now at 1500) . You need to call 500 to potentially win 2000 (total pot) so you are getting 3 to 1 on your money. It is 3 to 1 because:
3 (P1500) to 1 (P500)
Should you call?
You now calculate how many outs you have. Assuming you are only hoping for the flush then you have 9 outs. Lets say the you also have top pair along with your flush draw and feel if you hit trips you'd win the hand. In that case you have 11 outs (9+2). Once you have the outs you simply multiply it by 2 and you get a rough % of hitting it on the turn. For the flush draw you have 18%. Now remember!!! You need to calculate PER CARD and not assume you have 36% to hit the flush until the river because there is another betting round after the turn. The ONLY time you can calculate your odds by multiplying by 4 (2 more cards and what your chance of hitting your draw until the river) is when you are ALL-IN.
That 18% translates to 5 to 1 odds but you are only getting paid 3 to 1 on the odds. It is incorrect for you to call because in the long run you would lose money. However, lets say the bet was only 200... You are now getting 7 to 1 odds for a 5 to 1 chance of making it. You call.
Everyone with me? Now people say thats it's a bit hard to figure all this out in the heat of a match. Its also a classic tell because when I see someone look up and look like they are calculating, I now have information that if I bet on the turn ABOVE the pot odds they will fold. It also tells me this person knows a bit of poker strategy and I will play him accordingly.
So you need to be able to calculate odds fast and not LOOK like you're doing it. Here's how to do it in 2 SECONDS FLAT (ahem trade secret hehehe)
One question should be enough.... how much is the pot? From there you start counting bets as fractions of the pot. 1890 pot someone bets 400 that is automatically somewhere around 1/5 of the pot. If there are callers just add 1 to the denominator so 2 callers (and you) means you automatically get 8 to 1 odds. If someone bets the pot (1/1) and get no callers then add one to the denominator and you get 2-1 odds. Dali noh??
Ok so now you know how to easily calculate odds.... but how to use it? The easiest way of course is to know when to call with your drawing hands. But if you reverse the situation you are armed with the information on how to make the drawing hands get bad odds for their calls!! The general rule of thumb is a pot bet will give almost all drawing hands bad odds.
The final thing here is Implied Odds. Its really this simple: Implied odds is how much you THINK you can win if you make the draw. So for example if a person bet 50% of his stack (Betting 500 of his last 1000 on a 1500 pot) You are getting 4 to 1 on your 5 to 1 flush draw. However, since he put it 50% of his stack it is safe to assume he is now POT COMMITED and will push his remaining chips afterwards so you can go ahead and calculate the pot at 2000 (instead of 1500) essentially boosting your odds to 5-1 and getting the correct odds to call your flush draw.
I hope that is an easy and quick reference to the confusing world of pot odds. Lemme know if you have questions or corrections.
For the advance players, usually pot odds is just a basis of whether they should call a drawing hand but in reality pot odds allow you to control the probabilities and put them in your favor.
So here is my take on the topic. Take note there may be errors and I am not going through the nitty gritty exact calculations. I am just going to tell you how I calculate pot odds and how I use it.
Pot Odds is basically the comparison of how much you need to bet to win a pot versus the odds of you making the best hand. So for example there is 1000 in the pot and you have a flush draw. Only one person in the hand and they bet 500 (pot now at 1500) . You need to call 500 to potentially win 2000 (total pot) so you are getting 3 to 1 on your money. It is 3 to 1 because:
3 (P1500) to 1 (P500)
Should you call?
You now calculate how many outs you have. Assuming you are only hoping for the flush then you have 9 outs. Lets say the you also have top pair along with your flush draw and feel if you hit trips you'd win the hand. In that case you have 11 outs (9+2). Once you have the outs you simply multiply it by 2 and you get a rough % of hitting it on the turn. For the flush draw you have 18%. Now remember!!! You need to calculate PER CARD and not assume you have 36% to hit the flush until the river because there is another betting round after the turn. The ONLY time you can calculate your odds by multiplying by 4 (2 more cards and what your chance of hitting your draw until the river) is when you are ALL-IN.
That 18% translates to 5 to 1 odds but you are only getting paid 3 to 1 on the odds. It is incorrect for you to call because in the long run you would lose money. However, lets say the bet was only 200... You are now getting 7 to 1 odds for a 5 to 1 chance of making it. You call.
Everyone with me? Now people say thats it's a bit hard to figure all this out in the heat of a match. Its also a classic tell because when I see someone look up and look like they are calculating, I now have information that if I bet on the turn ABOVE the pot odds they will fold. It also tells me this person knows a bit of poker strategy and I will play him accordingly.
So you need to be able to calculate odds fast and not LOOK like you're doing it. Here's how to do it in 2 SECONDS FLAT (ahem trade secret hehehe)
One question should be enough.... how much is the pot? From there you start counting bets as fractions of the pot. 1890 pot someone bets 400 that is automatically somewhere around 1/5 of the pot. If there are callers just add 1 to the denominator so 2 callers (and you) means you automatically get 8 to 1 odds. If someone bets the pot (1/1) and get no callers then add one to the denominator and you get 2-1 odds. Dali noh??
Ok so now you know how to easily calculate odds.... but how to use it? The easiest way of course is to know when to call with your drawing hands. But if you reverse the situation you are armed with the information on how to make the drawing hands get bad odds for their calls!! The general rule of thumb is a pot bet will give almost all drawing hands bad odds.
The final thing here is Implied Odds. Its really this simple: Implied odds is how much you THINK you can win if you make the draw. So for example if a person bet 50% of his stack (Betting 500 of his last 1000 on a 1500 pot) You are getting 4 to 1 on your 5 to 1 flush draw. However, since he put it 50% of his stack it is safe to assume he is now POT COMMITED and will push his remaining chips afterwards so you can go ahead and calculate the pot at 2000 (instead of 1500) essentially boosting your odds to 5-1 and getting the correct odds to call your flush draw.
I hope that is an easy and quick reference to the confusing world of pot odds. Lemme know if you have questions or corrections.
posted by GameFrog at 6:39 PM
7 Comments:
Thanks for the tip man. Before this,I was always trying to apply the rule of 4-2 when deciding whether to call draws. The PER card calculation makes more sense. =)
Yeap. There is a problem with the rule of 4 as well since lets say you have
K[d] Q[d] and the flop is:
J[d]10[d]2[c]
Lets say you peg your opponent on pair 3s (no diamonds)
You have 2 overs - 6 outs
You have a flush draw - 9 outs
you have an OED - 6 outs (cant count the 9 and ace[d]
which gives you 21 outs. If you multiply that by 4 you would get 84%. That would mean you were a 4 to 1 FAVORITE when in reality you are trailing.
The higher the number of outs the more the multiplier goes off. The estimation is best suited for outs less then 12 and just by calculating per card.
Any corrections on the 2 second pot odds calculation equation? I hereby name that the "GameFrog Method"
LOL
lol Erick. Kaw nga dyan yung tumalo sakin sa PPT.
Just thought to share some insights.
nice post! me likey the 2 sec GAMEFROG METHOD!
You can still use the rule of 4 even as the outs increases. Basically once the number of outs > 9 you calculate the percentage as you normally would but you subtract (number of outs - 9) from the final figure...
e.g. you have 15 outs:
15 x 4 - (15 - 9) = 54%
Agreed 11fing. But I stick to my main simplified version of only using the rule of 2. The only time you would use the rule of 4 is if you are all-in or the opponent you are playing against is all-in.
This post is geared to the people who hate math and is good at high level estimation hehehe.
i remember posting an extensive article specifically about the PER CARD rule on one of my earlier posts. It was at a time when most of us were just sort of new to the game (playing for less than a year) and i read about how you should not calculate for turn and river odds since there is another betting round, just like you said. so i posted it.
It's the article
"What are the Odds?" from oct.2005.
It's a pretty costly but common mistake when calcualting odds.
nice job on the article bro!
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